Tag Archives: XHB

Homebuilders

Download (PDF, 460KB)

For optimal viewing click the arrow symbol in the upper right of the document window then Zoom+ or download the .PDF at the link above.

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

If news follows price, the current set-up in the XHB isn’t good news for GDP

Download (PDF, 381KB)

For optimal viewing click the arrow symbol in the upper right of the document window then Zoom+ or download the .PDF at the link above.

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Lowe’s Companies – Selling Strength

LOW is another of our short positions for the XHB bear theme.

LOW – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

What Home Depot & Apple have (had) in common

We leaned into a high-octane, high fear factor trade, and shorted Home Depot on its EPS pop yesterday.

The bear work posted here on the XHB helped ease some of sweating, but it was still intense.

We covered 1/2 the position on the gap fill near the end of trading today, and we will continue to trade HD aggressively from the short side on rallies.

The charts below should give the most ardent HD bulls pause

HD : SPX – Weekly

HD : AAPL – Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

 

IYR – Another shoe dropping off the Fiscal Cliff

The Real estate ETF (IYR) chart doesn’t need much annotation, this is a textbook 5 wave move.

We are already short Homebuilders.  Is the headline below, the rumor IYR heard this morning, and the reason both IYR & XHB are so weak?

How ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Could Affect Mortgage Interest Deduction

With the question asked, the answer (to why) does not matter to us.  The market tells us what to do, and now it is telling us to SELL!

We started new shorts in AVB, EQR, PCL, PLD & SPG

IYR – Daily

IYR – Weekly

IYR – Weekly Long-Term

IYR – Monthly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Lennar Corp – A ripe short for our XHB outlook

We are bears on Homebuilders.

Homebuilders update: the S&P might need to find new leadership soon -$XHB

Critical trading day today for the Homebuilders ETF

Why Homebuilders are diverging and likely peaking – $XHB

Homebuilders Update – Rethinking the Housing Recovery…Again – XHB

Lennar (LEN) is giving us a nice technical trade setup for a thematic short with good risk reward and easy stop management.  LEN is showing multiple negative divergences in all time frames.

LEN – Monthly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Why Homebuilders are diverging and likely peaking – $XHB

Housing leadership not yet broken, but emerging industry data confirm why the XHB is diverging and likely peaking

XHB – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

 

Homebuilders, Interest Rates & Gold

Is the Homebuilders Index ($XHB) another indicator of higher interest rates?

If it is, what are the implications for gold ($GLD)?

This is a relationship we are watching closely.

XHB TNX Weekly

XHB TNX GLD Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Homebuilders Update – Rethinking the Housing Recovery…Again – XHB

“Poor reaction today to good news – always a sign.” – Beachcomber

“All price movements have one thing in common: They are a reflection of the trend in the hopes, fears, knowledge, optimism, and greed of market participants.” - Martin Pring

A market that sells off on seemingly bullish news should be viewed bearishly. The market is a discounting mechanism.

XHB Daily – note relative performance vs. SPX

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

XHB – Update: Homebuilders Divergence Broadening

This is an update to Beachcomber’s XHB post 25JUL12

XHB -Update: Divergences Broadening

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Draghi’s Jawboning Just a Prelude to the Sell-off

We need a good night of sleep and we are going out flat after selling all of our longs this morning and covering all of the shorts we were not stopped out on in the last hour today.

That said, Beachcomber is not buying the rally…

Draghi Jawboning Rally

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)