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Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
For optimal viewing click the arrow symbol in the upper right of the document window then Zoom+ or download the .PDF at the link above.
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
XHB – Daily
Housing Index – Weekly
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
LEN – Monthly
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
LOW is another of our short positions for the XHB bear theme.
LOW – Daily
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
We leaned into a high-octane, high fear factor trade, and shorted Home Depot on its EPS pop yesterday.
The bear work posted here on the XHB helped ease some of sweating, but it was still intense.
We covered 1/2 the position on the gap fill near the end of trading today, and we will continue to trade HD aggressively from the short side on rallies.
The charts below should give the most ardent HD bulls pause
HD : SPX – Weekly
HD : AAPL – Weekly
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The Real estate ETF (IYR) chart doesn’t need much annotation, this is a textbook 5 wave move.
We are already short Homebuilders. Is the headline below, the rumor IYR heard this morning, and the reason both IYR & XHB are so weak?
With the question asked, the answer (to why) does not matter to us. The market tells us what to do, and now it is telling us to SELL!
We started new shorts in AVB, EQR, PCL, PLD & SPG
IYR – Daily
IYR – Weekly
IYR – Weekly Long-Term
IYR – Monthly
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
We are bears on Homebuilders.
Lennar (LEN) is giving us a nice technical trade setup for a thematic short with good risk reward and easy stop management. LEN is showing multiple negative divergences in all time frames.
LEN – Monthly
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XHB – Daily
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Housing leadership not yet broken, but emerging industry data confirm why the XHB is diverging and likely peaking
XHB – Daily
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Is the Homebuilders Index ($XHB) another indicator of higher interest rates?
If it is, what are the implications for gold ($GLD)?
This is a relationship we are watching closely.
XHB TNX Weekly
XHB TNX GLD Weekly
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“Poor reaction today to good news – always a sign.” – Beachcomber
“All price movements have one thing in common: They are a reflection of the trend in the hopes, fears, knowledge, optimism, and greed of market participants.” - Martin Pring
A market that sells off on seemingly bullish news should be viewed bearishly. The market is a discounting mechanism.
XHB Daily – note relative performance vs. SPX
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This is an update to Beachcomber’s XHB post 25JUL12
XHB -Update: Divergences Broadening
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We need a good night of sleep and we are going out flat after selling all of our longs this morning and covering all of the shorts we were not stopped out on in the last hour today.
That said, Beachcomber is not buying the rally…
Draghi Jawboning Rally
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)
S&P Homebuilders ETF – XHB – Primary Trend
Lumber Prices – Primary Trend
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)