Tag Archives: S&P500

Is the government’s REO-to-Rental “housing recovery” in trouble?

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Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Weekly Trade Setups – Stock signals for the week of 18FEB13

Our signals are a proprietary scan of the S&P 500 and NDX 100 stocks designed to identify pullbacks within an existing trend for optimal trade entry and risk management.

These are setups we will be trading in our fund. You can observe our trade management of the signals on StockTwits, and Twitter as each trade evolves.

The signals are based on the work of Mr. Steven Primo who is a friend, Veteran Stock Exchange Specialist, and mentor of ours since 1986.

The index scan may produce upwards of 25 signals.  The signals we ultimately choose fit multiple criteria we like to see for our trading style, including sector criteria and our risk tolerance. You can learn more about Mr. Primo’s work @ Specialist

Weekend roadmap: pullback likely, prior to last push

SPY – Daily

DIA – Daily

QQQ – Daily

IWM – Daily

VIX – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Small Stocks Threaten a Big Bull

Putting big picture perspective around the trade.

We recommend our readers spend some time with this chart and contemplate its annotations and relationships.

SPX : COMPQ RSI Comparison – Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

US Treasuries Breaking Down

The chart below shows US Treasuries are breaking down, and rates are turning up.  Without economic growth question is why?

SPX : TLT – Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Oversold indicators and divergent VIX suggest we have a tradable bottom

On October 14th, and again on October 16th, we posted commentary about our anticipated development of an oversold condition, that would setup a trading bottom in the market.

VIX diverging now; S&P trading bottom approaching?

Transports set for a flush – $TRAN

Our fund had gross market exposure of 40/60 – long/short, until the morning of October 15th, when we started the shift to our current gross exposure of 58/42.

We don’t know how long the expected rally will last, but we do know the market likes to confound expectations.

SPX – Daily

DIA – Daily

VIX – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

 

Apple – some retracement likely, but it won’t be a lasting bottom

Even a 35% decline in AAPL to a 50% rally retracement can’t produce a lasting trading bottom

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

VIX diverging now; S&P trading bottom approaching?

Our short positions are working, and we are getting comfortable.  That is never a good sign for us.  We are going to trim our short exposure.

VIX – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

EBAY – Expect some back & fill

The best way I can describe EBAY, – “its is a funky stock to trade.”  The stock rarely acts the way we expect in the short-term even when we are on the right side of it.

We moved our trading horizon out on EBAY and we are looking for a better long entry in the $40 area.

Not wanting to waste a move we expect, we are short EBAY now.

EBAY –  Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Transports set for a flush – $TRAN

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) closed down -2.55% today which is its largest one day drop since May 17, 2012 when it closed  -3.1%.

The move in the TRAN sets the market up for a flush, that may create an over-sold, trading bottom.

Transports and other cyclicals poised to lead the last leg down, prior to a trading bottom

TRAN – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Keeping short-term trading in long-term perspective

With a picture worth a 1000 words, this chart will be priceless to those who apply its message properly.

If the picture isn’t clear, read: 100 Year (Stock Market) Storm? and the story will come into focus.

SPX : BKX : TRAN : SMH – Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

MSFT losing more than its chief Windows architect

On October 01, 2012 we posted bearish commentary on Microsoft titled Windows Halo Effect on Microsoft Fading Fast – $MSFT  

We were short MSFT coming in yesterday and covered on the gap fills; ”C’est la vie.”

The stock looks like it has more downside coming.

MSFT – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Pullback indicated in the VIX, an oversold bounce in the S&P — nothing more

At Bikini Analytics we are laying out a big picture of where we see the market headed (lower).  This morning we posted a 30 year view of the NYSE Primary Exchange Index with long-term bearish implications titled 100 Year (Stock Market) Storm?  

We want to stress to readers that is a MONTHLY chart, working on a topping formation since 1997!  That said, we are no less bearish on our market outlook.

But, as traders we have to keep in mind that markets do not move in a straight line.  Bear market rallies can be brutal.  Their typical characteristics are moves that are up quick, sharp and steep, lasting one to three days on low volumes.

The big picture is clear. To navigate it successfully, we have to  follow the short-term road map or risk poor trade entry and stop management that can wipe us out.

The $VIX is down 8.9% as I type.  It is suggesting the market has some short-term bounce potential.

VIX – Daily

SPX – Daily

VIX – Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Leading indicator SLV/GLD continues its rising risk message

 

$Silver : $Gold – Monthly Spot

$Silver : $Gold – Weekly Spot

$Silver : $Gold – Daily Spot

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Trapped Longs – EW

On October 09, 2012 Edwards Lifesciences (EW) dropped 21% after the company lowered guidance warning that austerity measures in Europe and lower insurance reimbursements in the US would hurt Q3 sales.

The company threw hopeful bulls a bone, with CEO Michael Mussallem saying they “anticipate a strong rebound in the fourth quarter” 

Sounds like a slope of hope to us. From our experience, it is safer to listen to what the stock says, than what company management says.

Noting the gap overhead, and knowing how the market hates a void, our bet is the stock wants to fill its spring 2012 gap @ 74 before it tries to workout the giant hole it just left in investors pockets above.

We see a lot of trapped longs and doubt they will be hanging around to see if Mr. Mussallem’s reassurances of a Q4 rebound bear fruit in this market environment.

We rate EW Red in the Bikini State and we will start building a new SHORT position Monday.

EW – Weekly

EW – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)