Tag Archives: Silver

Breakout in Silver suggests SLV will out-perform GLD

Breakout in SLV, on the strength of its own miners vs. the metal, suggests SLV will out-perform GLD over the balance of their advance

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Second derivative turn in GLD indicators, confirmed by divergent trading between SLV and GLD, suggest rally risk in gold rally and possible lower lows, prior to a better upturn

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Current silver-to-gold divergence vs. the S&P more extreme than those that foreshadowed the bear markets of 2000 and 2008

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Increasingly revealing drill-down on silver-to-gold relationship to the S&P

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Silver

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The diverging SLV-GLD ratio confirms gold’s suggestion of S&P risk

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Remember when “risk-on” meant more than just stocks?

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Interpreting the long-term gold and silver wave-counts

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While equity managers fear “fighting the Fed,” investors in gold, silver, oil, commodities and Treasuries fear risk the Fed apparently can’t fight

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Silver’s widening weakness and divergence; trouble for S&P/GDP?

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Silver Signpost

We are bears on Silver.

Leading indicator SLV/GLD continues its rising risk message

Silver – Commercial Hedging Suggests Prices Should Fall -$SLV

Silver following script – $SILVER

As traders we know the assets we trade don’t move in a straight line.  Being on the wrong side of the metals or their related stocks even for a short time can hurt.

Here is a chart that may help with trade entry in SLV.

SLV – Weekly

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Leading indicator SLV/GLD continues its rising risk message

 

$Silver : $Gold – Monthly Spot

$Silver : $Gold – Weekly Spot

$Silver : $Gold – Daily Spot

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Silver Wheaton, a Second Look – $SLW

On October 08, 2012 we posted Silver’s Short-Term Bear Case which was followed by Silver – Commercial Hedging Suggests Prices Should Fall – $SLV on October 12, 2012

The short-term bear case for silver has played out well for us.

That said, one name we used to play silver short in our fund needs a second look. The stock is Silver Wheaton – SLW.

At the time of our bearish postings on silver, SLW was overbought on a daily basis.  We traded SLW aggressively and were rewarded  for shorting intraday rallies for the last two weeks.

With Friday and today’s price action, the daily technical metrics of SLW started to improve, that has us taking a closer look at the weekly SLW chart.  What we see tells us SLW is not a safe trading short now and it could move higher.

The most bullish aspect of the SLW weekly chart is the simultaneous break-out of its price trend lines and its momentum oscillator trend lines.

We are still bearish on silver, and short a small amount of SLW at the time of this post but we will be reeling it in soon.  We have not yet done the technical work, but the silver miners may be diverging from the metal.

SLW – Weekly

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Silver – Commercial Hedging Suggests Prices Should Fall -$SLV

This Chart was put together last night.  Silver is down .82% now as we post this.

Follow on to why we are short SLW.  When commercial hedgers print -50k on the daily Silver Futures chart a fall in silver prices is imminent.  We expect a decline in silver prices any day.

Silver Future Daily – Note relationship to Commercial Hedger Positions in Green

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Still hopeful concerning QE?

$CRB Daily

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Silver’s Short-Term Bear Case – $SLV

Where I am writing this note from there are still a few bears wandering around town tipping garbage cans as they fatten up for their winter hibernation.

The bears will be gone soon and so will we be with this call.

Lease rates have been a reliable short-term indicator for trading tops in Silver.

SLV Weekly

Silver Lease Rates

We have a small trading SHORT position on in SLW (which could easily bite us) at the time of this post and we rate SLV Red in the Bikini State

Silver Trivia:

  • Known since prehistoric time. Man learned to separate silver from lead as early as 3000 B.C.
  • The melting point of silver is 961.93°C, boiling point is 2212°C
  • Silver’s element symbol Ag, is from the Latin word argentum meaning silver.
  • In many cultures, and some alchemical texts, silver is associated with the Moon while gold is associated with the Sun.
  • Silver has the highest electrical conductivity of all metals.
  • Silver has the highest thermal conductivity of all metals.
  • Silver halide crystals darken when exposed to light. This process was vital to photography.
  • Silver is one of the noble metals.
  • Silver is slightly harder (less malleable) than gold.
  • Silver ions and silver compounds are toxic to many types of bacteria, algae and fungi. Silver coins were stored in containers of water and wine to prevent spoiling.
  • Silver nitrate prevents infection in burns and other wounds.

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Cyclical Metals Indicators Ever Divergent – Risky for GDP, Maybe Even the S&P

Cyclical metals indicators continue to rally less, and less long

Copper : Gold : SPX – Weekly

Silver : Gold : SPX – Weekly

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Commodities & QE, is the Bull Cycle Complete? – $CRB

Message from the CRB: If QE4 hadn’t been fully priced in prior to its announcement, it was with the spike on announcement day…

CRB Daily

CRB Weekly

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Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

Pivots 25SEP12 .PDF

 

 

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

Pivots 24SEP12 .PDF 

 

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)