Tag Archives: QQQ

NASDAQ-100 now Warning

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The lead indicating QQQ is warning

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Market Roadmap: SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, IYT

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Weekend Roadmap: VIX-centricity could trump even fiscal cliff resolution

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Weekend roadmap: go with DIA – Beware of VIX weekly

Weekend roadmap: go with DIA, based on post-cliff resolution restocking expectation, but beware the maturing VIX weekly

DIA – Daily

SPY – Daily

QQQ – Daily

IWM – Daily

VIX – Daily

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Weekend roadmap: pullback likely, prior to last push

SPY – Daily

DIA – Daily

QQQ – Daily

IWM – Daily

VIX – Daily

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Market Roadmap – DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ, VIX

We expect a corrective move down from the last five days of rallying.  If a move lower accommodates our expectations, it will be the b wave in an a-b-c corrective phase described by the Elliot Wave Principle .

The simplest explanation for what we are looking for is a visual aid below from StockCharts.com – ChartSchool Elliot Wave Basics - You can click the preceding link for a quick tutorial if you are not familiar with Wave Theory.

We are looking for b down noted by the dashed red arrow.

Elliot Wave 5 wave down sequence with an a-b-c upward corrective wave

DIA – Daily

SPY – Daily

IWM – Daily

QQQ – Daily

Conversely, we expect this last chart shown of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to rally in confirmation of selling in the broader market.

VIX – Daily

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Apple – some retracement likely, but it won’t be a lasting bottom

Even a 35% decline in AAPL to a 50% rally retracement can’t produce a lasting trading bottom

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EBAY – Expect some back & fill

The best way I can describe EBAY, – “its is a funky stock to trade.”  The stock rarely acts the way we expect in the short-term even when we are on the right side of it.

We moved our trading horizon out on EBAY and we are looking for a better long entry in the $40 area.

Not wanting to waste a move we expect, we are short EBAY now.

EBAY –  Weekly

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Another Frankenstorm on the Way?

We normally post Beachcomber’s work without comment because it speaks for itself. And, rarely do we share the  private conversations we have with him. We were discussing the charts below, and what he sees is one of the most threatening H&S tops ever. If it is, it will unfold in stages, over a long period of time; just know the picture isn’t pretty.

The main takeaway from our conversation, and the point he wanted to make, is for us to “remember, this is a market that could be down for years!”

If you think that is overly bearish, and indicative of a bottom, I offer the chart Beachcomber posted yesterday that most people ignored.

Nasdaq 100 – Risk is rising  this post received less than 10 views yesterday when the average Beachcomber post sees 50-100.

Integrating the S&P’s short- and long-term price patterns suggest another possible Frankenstorm this season. – Beachcomber

SPX – Monthly

SPX – Weekly

SPX – Daily

To see the complete body of Beachcomber’s work select “Beachcomber” from the Category drop down on the right side of our Home page

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Nasdaq 100 – Risk is rising

NDX clinging precariously to support, hoping to bounce

$NDX – Daily

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Roadmap for the week – $DIA, $SPY, $RUT, $NDX

Roadmap for the week: a gap-filling, short-term oversold bounce, followed by renewed selling

DIA – Daily

SPY – Daily

RUT – Daily

NDX – Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Bonds: What if? (interest rates rise)

Tale of the (bond) tape: consider the consequences of potentially rising long rates, even as the economy fades

TLT – Daily

TLT – Weekly

USB – Monthly

Slumping Oil Beginning to Drag the S&P

We started posting red flags on oil back in September.  We have an update today.  Links to the series are below for your convenience.

OIL Preparing to Reverse – $WTIC  September 04, 2012

The Oil / S&P Correlation  September 19, 2012

The Oil / S&P Correlation – Risk now being Realized    September 26, 2012

Update: slumping oil finally beginning to drag the S&P

WTIC – Weekly

WTIC – Daily

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$VIX – 2007 Redux?

VIX perspective: the only precedent for the currently evolving daily, weekly and monthly divergent upturn in the VIX came in 2007

VIX – Daily

VIX – Weekly

VIX – Monthly

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$VIX – Upside in Volatility Suggested

VIX indeed kicking in; additional upside in volatility suggested

VIX – Daily

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XLY signaling risk to 70% of U.S. GDP

XLY Daily

XLY Weekly

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NDX – Classic 50% Retrace

“You can make a fortune by following this one rule alone.” – W.D. Gann

The rule is the 50% retrace.  Edward Dobson wrote a book about it in 1979 titled The Trading Rule That Can Make You Rich.*

We use the 50% retrace in multiple time-frames for trade entry and exit.

In technical analysis the longer the time-frame, the more significant a pattern.

Below we present a doozy (with a macro thought), combined with a rising wedge, that is inside a defined channel. All increase the significance of the pattern.-

NDX’s likely wedge break portends more than a quarterly earnings issue-

NDX – Monthly 50% Retrace & Rising Wedge

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QQQs suggest S&P is heading lower

Relative strength breakdown in the Q’s suggests material S&P weakness ahead

QQQ : SPY Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)