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Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
For optimal viewing click the arrow symbol in the upper right of the document window or download the .PDF at the link above.
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
For optimal viewing click the arrow symbol in the upper right of the document window or download the .PDF at the link above.
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
FB – Daily
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
Weekend roadmap: go with DIA, based on post-cliff resolution restocking expectation, but beware the maturing VIX weekly
DIA – Daily
SPY – Daily
QQQ – Daily
IWM – Daily
VIX – Daily
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
SPY – Daily
DIA – Daily
QQQ – Daily
IWM – Daily
VIX – Daily
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
We expect a corrective move down from the last five days of rallying. If a move lower accommodates our expectations, it will be the b wave in an a-b-c corrective phase described by the Elliot Wave Principle .
The simplest explanation for what we are looking for is a visual aid below from StockCharts.com – ChartSchool Elliot Wave Basics - You can click the preceding link for a quick tutorial if you are not familiar with Wave Theory.
We are looking for b down noted by the dashed red arrow.
Elliot Wave 5 wave down sequence with an a-b-c upward corrective wave
DIA – Daily
SPY – Daily
IWM – Daily
QQQ – Daily
Conversely, we expect this last chart shown of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to rally in confirmation of selling in the broader market.
VIX – Daily
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
Even a 35% decline in AAPL to a 50% rally retracement can’t produce a lasting trading bottom
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
The best way I can describe EBAY, – “its is a funky stock to trade.” The stock rarely acts the way we expect in the short-term even when we are on the right side of it.
We moved our trading horizon out on EBAY and we are looking for a better long entry in the $40 area.
Not wanting to waste a move we expect, we are short EBAY now.
EBAY – Weekly
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
We normally post Beachcomber’s work without comment because it speaks for itself. And, rarely do we share the private conversations we have with him. We were discussing the charts below, and what he sees is one of the most threatening H&S tops ever. If it is, it will unfold in stages, over a long period of time; just know the picture isn’t pretty.
The main takeaway from our conversation, and the point he wanted to make, is for us to “remember, this is a market that could be down for years!”
If you think that is overly bearish, and indicative of a bottom, I offer the chart Beachcomber posted yesterday that most people ignored.
Nasdaq 100 – Risk is rising this post received less than 10 views yesterday when the average Beachcomber post sees 50-100.
Integrating the S&P’s short- and long-term price patterns suggest another possible Frankenstorm this season. – Beachcomber
SPX – Monthly
SPX – Weekly
SPX – Daily
To see the complete body of Beachcomber’s work select “Beachcomber” from the Category drop down on the right side of our Home page
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
NDX clinging precariously to support, hoping to bounce
$NDX – Daily
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Roadmap for the week: a gap-filling, short-term oversold bounce, followed by renewed selling
DIA – Daily
SPY – Daily
RUT – Daily
NDX – Daily
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
Tale of the (bond) tape: consider the consequences of potentially rising long rates, even as the economy fades
TLT – Daily
TLT – Weekly
USB – Monthly
We started posting red flags on oil back in September. We have an update today. Links to the series are below for your convenience.
OIL Preparing to Reverse – $WTIC September 04, 2012
The Oil / S&P Correlation September 19, 2012
The Oil / S&P Correlation – Risk now being Realized September 26, 2012
Update: slumping oil finally beginning to drag the S&P
WTIC – Weekly
WTIC – Daily
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
VIX perspective: the only precedent for the currently evolving daily, weekly and monthly divergent upturn in the VIX came in 2007
VIX – Daily
VIX – Weekly
VIX – Monthly
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
VIX indeed kicking in; additional upside in volatility suggested
VIX – Daily
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XLY Daily
XLY Weekly
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“You can make a fortune by following this one rule alone.” – W.D. Gann
The rule is the 50% retrace. Edward Dobson wrote a book about it in 1979 titled The Trading Rule That Can Make You Rich.*
We use the 50% retrace in multiple time-frames for trade entry and exit.
In technical analysis the longer the time-frame, the more significant a pattern.
Below we present a doozy (with a macro thought), combined with a rising wedge, that is inside a defined channel. All increase the significance of the pattern.-
NDX’s likely wedge break portends more than a quarterly earnings issue-
NDX – Monthly 50% Retrace & Rising Wedge
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
Relative strength breakdown in the Q’s suggests material S&P weakness ahead
QQQ : SPY Weekly
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)