Tag Archives: $DIA

Dow Utilities signal to the Dow Industrials growing louder

utilm 07nov13

utilw 07nov13

utild 07nov13

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Will debt ceiling resolution have counter-trend or primary trend impact?

djia 09oct13

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Hard to imagine Transport weakness vs. the Industrials won’t translate into (further) GDP issues

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Threatened Dow break reflects either “tapering” fear, unanticipated global rate pressure, or what the combination of tapering and rising rates signal

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A turn indicated, probably not THE turn

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Market Roadmap: SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, IYT

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Weekend roadmap: go with DIA – Beware of VIX weekly

Weekend roadmap: go with DIA, based on post-cliff resolution restocking expectation, but beware the maturing VIX weekly

DIA – Daily

SPY – Daily

QQQ – Daily

IWM – Daily

VIX – Daily

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Fiscal Cliff Resolution Play – $DIA : $SPY

Dow/S&P comparison suggests DIA buy to play inventory build, following fiscal cliff resolution

SPY – Daily

DIA – Daily

DIA : SPY – Daily

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Weekend roadmap: pullback likely, prior to last push

SPY – Daily

DIA – Daily

QQQ – Daily

IWM – Daily

VIX – Daily

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Market Roadmap – DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ, VIX

We expect a corrective move down from the last five days of rallying.  If a move lower accommodates our expectations, it will be the b wave in an a-b-c corrective phase described by the Elliot Wave Principle .

The simplest explanation for what we are looking for is a visual aid below from StockCharts.com – ChartSchool Elliot Wave Basics - You can click the preceding link for a quick tutorial if you are not familiar with Wave Theory.

We are looking for b down noted by the dashed red arrow.

Elliot Wave 5 wave down sequence with an a-b-c upward corrective wave

DIA – Daily

SPY – Daily

IWM – Daily

QQQ – Daily

Conversely, we expect this last chart shown of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to rally in confirmation of selling in the broader market.

VIX – Daily

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Oversold indicators and divergent VIX suggest we have a tradable bottom

On October 14th, and again on October 16th, we posted commentary about our anticipated development of an oversold condition, that would setup a trading bottom in the market.

VIX diverging now; S&P trading bottom approaching?

Transports set for a flush – $TRAN

Our fund had gross market exposure of 40/60 – long/short, until the morning of October 15th, when we started the shift to our current gross exposure of 58/42.

We don’t know how long the expected rally will last, but we do know the market likes to confound expectations.

SPX – Daily

DIA – Daily

VIX – Daily

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Roadmap update – DIA & SPY

On October 28, 2012 we posted  Roadmap for the week – $DIA, $SPY, $RUT, $NDX

Although the trading week was shortened by Sandy, the technical outlook has not changed.

Below is an update for the DIA & SPY

Gap-filling market rebound on track; still expect limited upside

DIA – Daily

SPY – Daily

 

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Roadmap for the week – $DIA, $SPY, $RUT, $NDX

Roadmap for the week: a gap-filling, short-term oversold bounce, followed by renewed selling

DIA – Daily

SPY – Daily

RUT – Daily

NDX – Daily

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Key Cyclicals continue unimpressed with our economic prospects: $TRAN – $INDU

If you are long this tape you may not care much about the chart below.  If you are short this tape, this is one of the technical indicators you are praying to for some relief.

$INDU vs. $TRAN daily

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Dow Theory Violation: $INDU – $TRAN

Dow Theory is basic tool that should be in every technicians tool kit.  We touched on one of the tenets (the market discounts) in our Homebuilders update. To date, the Dow Transports have not matched the Dow Industrials 2012 bull market highs.

The current divergence between the $INDU and $TRAN is suggesting a potential bikini malfunction in the $INDU where the top is not going to hold.

$INDU -$TRAN – Dow Theory Violation

$INDU – $TRAN two divergences in six months

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