Tag Archives: $BDI

China finally reports news that correlates logically with that of its trade partners

Download (PDF, 379KB)

For optimal viewing click the arrow symbol in the upper right of the document window then Zoom+ or download the .PDF at the link above.

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

China hard landing more credible by the day, its stimulus effect less credible

Download (PDF, 396KB)

For optimal viewing click the arrow symbol in the upper right of the document window then Zoom+ or download the .PDF at the link above.

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Make sense to rely much on China for growth?

Download (PDF, 374KB)

For optimal viewing click the arrow symbol in the upper right of the document window then Zoom+ or download the .PDF at the link above.

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full dis)

More technical support than fundamental support for further China rally

Download (PDF, 473KB)

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

 

China’s oversold rally continues impressive, despite lacking evidence that economic recovery is responsible

Download (PDF, 335KB)

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Risk on Trade May Have Legs – QE

We got a call this morning pointing out an interesting set of charts.  We know commodities are hot right now but this one in particular caught Beachcomber’s wandering eye.

QE already priced in?  No doubt, but maybe not totally priced in.

“With aluminum demand weak, global inventories huge, and freight prices accurately reflecting such conditions, what else but QE explains the sharp rally in product prices?

Dow Jones US Aluminum Index Daily

Dow Jones US Aluminum Index Weekly

Dow Jones US Aluminum Index vs. Baltic Dry Freight Index

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

China Continues Breaking

“China continues breaking all trend lines; both the BDI and the Harpex argue that further weakness lies ahead” – Beachcomber

Here’s the updated Harper Petersen Containerized Freight Index. The Harpex fell 40% in the second half of 2011, reflecting the then accelerating slowdown in global demand, and serving notice that China’s export dependent economy was about to be exposed. After six straight months of decline, the Harpex bounced 20%, before turning back down toward the lows. It wouldn’t take much additional decline for the Harpex to test the area of the financial crisis lows of 2008.

SSEC Monthly

 

SSEC – BDFI Daily

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Bringing down the curtain on China’s secular bull market

Beachcomber sent us an updated view of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSEC)  and its long-term trend on the monthly chart posted below.

The length or duration of a trendline, and the angle of ascent or descent of the line, are important factors in determining the significance of the trend being examined.  The SSEC chart shows a gradual rising 17 year rising bottom line; that is a significant trend!

A break of this trendline will have powerful bearish implications.  Trendline breaks are measured for minimum price objectives like other price patterns e.g. “peak to trendline projected down from the break.”

A trendline break of this size for the SSEC has the potential to put the index back to levels last seen when Beijing got its first McDonald’s.

Fries with that break anybody…?

SSEC Long-Term Monthly Pattern

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

 

Will The Global Economy Breakdown below 2008 Crisis Levels?

Both dry bulk cargo and container freight rate trends show how far-fetched global economic recovery is anytime soon.  In fact, as the charts indicate, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the global economy will avert a breakdown below its late 2008 crisis levels. – Beachcomber

Harper Petersen Shipping Index

Baltic Dry Freight Index

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)