Monthly Archives: September 2012

Unprecedented Weakness in Transports vs. S&P

June rally in the Transports now all but totally retraced; dangerous cyclical indicator

$TRAN Daily

$TRAN : $SPX Weekly

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Cyclical Metals Indicators Ever Divergent – Risky for GDP, Maybe Even the S&P

Cyclical metals indicators continue to rally less, and less long

Copper : Gold : SPX – Weekly

Silver : Gold : SPX – Weekly

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The Oil / S&P Correlation – Risk now being Realized

Updating the S&P call from the oil market last week – risk now being realized

Click link for last week’s commentary - The Oil / S&P Correlation 

WTIC vs SPX Correlation

WTIC vs SPX Divergence

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Commodities & QE, is the Bull Cycle Complete? – $CRB

Message from the CRB: If QE4 hadn’t been fully priced in prior to its announcement, it was with the spike on announcement day…

CRB Daily

CRB Weekly

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$VIX Signals Increase in S&P Risk

$VIX signaling, though the context for now is still just trading

VIX Daily

VIX Weekly

 

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Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

Pivots 25SEP12 .PDF

 

 

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

Pivots 24SEP12 .PDF 

 

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Transports Threatening Outright Breakdown – $TRAN

No longer just lagging badly, Transports now threatening outright breakdown

TRAN Daily

TRAN Weekly

We are short Expeditors Int. (EXPD), Ryder System (R), and Union Pacific (UNP).

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

Pivots 21SEP12 .PDF

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

How Fast Are U.S Economic Fundamentals Fading?

As I look at all the long set-ups today , especially in the basic material, energy and health care names we are trading, I was reminded that we stand on a gallows, with our head in the noose.

We have to keep trading the current trend which is up, but we are hedged, taking quicker  profits, and keeping our deployed capital low.

We don’t know the how or when, and expect the powers that be try to keep the tape elevated through the election, but the charts below suggest there is risk of a seismic downtick lurking in the equity markets.

“Stunning divergence in TRAN relative strength (daily and weekly) now greater than before the top in 2007″ – Beachcomber

TRAN : SPX – RSI Daily

TRAN : SPX – RSI Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

US Dollar Trading Bottom Developing – $UUP

Dollar trade developing, but translation into a primary trend move not yet likely

UUP Daily

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Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

Pivots 20SEP12 .PDF

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

The Oil / S&P Correlation

The Oil / S&P correlation currently conflicting with bullish sentiment; worth a watch.

WTIC vs. SPX Daily

WTIC vs. SPX Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

Pivots 19SEP12 .PDF

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

$EMC – Our Trading Plan – Bullish

We started toeing into EMC on the long side. The monthly chart suggests bullish price action with a base making higher highs and higher lows. We are looking for a partial retrace of EMC’s 2000-2001 decline to the 0.382 Fibonacci level which is around $42.00.

Our STOP is a breach of the monthly rising bottom line.

We rate EMC green in the Bikini State

We are long EMC at the time of this post.

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

 

QE & The Transports, What the Truckers Have to Say

It’s one thing to already turn thumbs down on QE prospects, quite another to have trucking stocks now diverging worse from the S&P than they did just before the 2007 bear market.

Dow Jones US Truck Index Weekly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Lumber Futures Suggest Caution on Housing Stocks – $XLB

Lumber futures are down 14% in past month, to a 3-month low. Ten month up-trend is now broken.

As a positive divergence last fall suggested the rally in housing no one expected, the current break of trend line support should at least suggest caution about how much rally remains.

Lumber Globex Daily Continuation

This diverging weekly pattern in lumber futures confirms the risk signaled in the daily’s trend line breach.

Lumber Globex Weekly Continuation

To download a copy of this commentary click the .PDF link below

Lumber Prices-Special Report.PDF

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)

Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

18SEP12 Pivots.PDF

 

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Daily & Weekly Pivots

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots for: $SPY, $ESZ2, $QQQ, $NQZ2, $AAPL, $GLD, $SLV, $6EZ2

 

17SEP12 Pivots.PDF

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)