June rally in the Transports now all but totally retraced; dangerous cyclical indicator
$TRAN Daily
$TRAN : $SPX Weekly
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Cyclical metals indicators continue to rally less, and less long
Copper : Gold : SPX – Weekly
Silver : Gold : SPX – Weekly
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VIX Daily
VIX Weekly
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Updating the S&P call from the oil market last week – risk now being realized
Click link for last week’s commentary - The Oil / S&P Correlation
WTIC vs SPX Correlation
WTIC vs SPX Divergence
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Message from the CRB: If QE4 hadn’t been fully priced in prior to its announcement, it was with the spike on announcement day…
CRB Daily
CRB Weekly
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$VIX signaling, though the context for now is still just trading
VIX Daily
VIX Weekly
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Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)
No longer just lagging badly, Transports now threatening outright breakdown
TRAN Daily
TRAN Weekly
We are short Expeditors Int. (EXPD), Ryder System (R), and Union Pacific (UNP).
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Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)
As I look at all the long set-ups today , especially in the basic material, energy and health care names we are trading, I was reminded that we stand on a gallows, with our head in the noose.
We have to keep trading the current trend which is up, but we are hedged, taking quicker profits, and keeping our deployed capital low.
We don’t know the how or when, and expect the powers that be try to keep the tape elevated through the election, but the charts below suggest there is risk of a seismic downtick lurking in the equity markets.
“Stunning divergence in TRAN relative strength (daily and weekly) now greater than before the top in 2007″ – Beachcomber
TRAN : SPX – RSI Daily
TRAN : SPX – RSI Weekly
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Dollar trade developing, but translation into a primary trend move not yet likely
UUP Daily
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The Oil / S&P correlation currently conflicting with bullish sentiment; worth a watch.
WTIC vs. SPX Daily
WTIC vs. SPX Weekly
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Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)
We started toeing into EMC on the long side. The monthly chart suggests bullish price action with a base making higher highs and higher lows. We are looking for a partial retrace of EMC’s 2000-2001 decline to the 0.382 Fibonacci level which is around $42.00.
Our STOP is a breach of the monthly rising bottom line.
We rate EMC green in the Bikini State
We are long EMC at the time of this post.
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It’s one thing to already turn thumbs down on QE prospects, quite another to have trucking stocks now diverging worse from the S&P than they did just before the 2007 bear market.
Dow Jones US Truck Index Weekly
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Lumber futures are down 14% in past month, to a 3-month low. Ten month up-trend is now broken.
As a positive divergence last fall suggested the rally in housing no one expected, the current break of trend line support should at least suggest caution about how much rally remains.
Lumber Globex Daily Continuation
This diverging weekly pattern in lumber futures confirms the risk signaled in the daily’s trend line breach.
Lumber Globex Weekly Continuation
To download a copy of this commentary click the .PDF link below
Lumber Prices-Special Report.PDF
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (Click here for full disclaimer)
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)
Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)