Monthly Archives: July 2012

XHB – Update: Homebuilders Divergence Broadening

This is an update to Beachcomber’s XHB post 25JUL12

XHB -Update: Divergences Broadening

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

SLV – Update

SLV – The break-out is not baked in yet.  In March and June SLV saw Fed related disappointments.  Volume is not indicative of either a confirmed break-out or a climactic bottom (a Brazilian.) We are in no hurry to get long.

SLV – Break-out not baked in

 

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

 

VIX – holding on the one-yard line?

The VIX is at a key scrimmage line.   Beachcomber sees a decisive break of 16 as the all clear sign that could contribute to another round of equity Bacchanalia.

VIX – The one yard line

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

More Divergences – COMPQ – MDY – XLY

Beachcomber sent in a trio of great charts that urge caution.  His charts are annotated with illuminating and educational commentary as always.

The quick takeaway is the rally highs in the DJIA and S&P 500 last week were unconfirmed by small-caps, mid-caps, and key sectors… (So far)

We get a lot of mileage from Beachcomber’s top-down market analysis when screening names for our portfolio.

Like a New England clambake, there are a lot of good morsels to feast on in this post – dig in and enjoy!

COMPQ – dont miss the RSI note

S&P MidCap ETF – MDY

XLY – a US GDP Proxy

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots

Daily & Weekly Pivots for SPY, ES/1, QQQ, NQ/1, AAPL, GLD, SLV, AUDJPY

Download Pivots  (.PDF file)

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

 

ACPW – Update: stock up 8.5% on the Quarterly Conf Call

Update to the previous ACPW post:

“particularly important was another dramatic increase in Gross Margin-Two Qtrs Ago Gross Margin was 20+%, Last Qtr Gross Margin was 26%+%, and this Qtr Gross Margin ~36% Gross margin, with little or no increase in Operating Expenses over last 4 quarters.” -JTOS

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Active Power Pennant Resolution Likely – ACPW

JTOS sent us a note on another one of his favorite longs - ACPW.

As a rule we do not buy stocks under $10.00

We do see that ACPW is coiling on the daily chart and resolution of its pennant is likely to happen soon.

“These Guys report after the close tonight-Probably BTE from recent co. guidance and body language. Pure Play on the rollout of Data Centers for The Cloud.” – JTOS

ACPW daily pennant

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

 

PCOM – Points International, Skirted Bottom

JTOS who we introduced in an earlier post as a “world class short seller”, sends us one of his favorite long ideas with notes.  Our quick read on the chart has us taking the unusual step of giving this guest post on PCOM aka: points.com a Bikini State rating of Green. We are big fans of skirted bottoms and you can read more about them in our BMY post.

The PM who was checking out the PCOM chart will be buying a long position in the stock after the market opens today. His thoughts are annotated.

Since we make our decisions purely on the technicals, we will let our readers decipher the rest of JTOS’s notes which appear after the PCOM chart.

PCOM Skirted Bottom

PCOM daily

PCOM’S Q2 AND Q4 ARE SEASONALLY STRONG, AND WITH 8 DAYS ‘TIL THE Q2 REPORT PCOM IS $.25 OFF ITS ALL TIME HIGH- BENEFITS DIRECTLY FROM EBAY/PAYPAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND ACTIVE MEMBERSHIP GROWTH THROUGH ITS EXCLUSIVE LOYALTY/INCENTIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH PAYPAL.(SOME HISTORIC DATA JUST BELOW) – JTOS

Points International to Report Second Quarter 2012 Results on Wednesday, August 8, 2012

TORONTO, July 24, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Points International Ltd. (TSX:PTS) (Nasdaq:PCOM), the owner and operator of Points.com, the world’s leading reward program management web site, announced today that it will report financial results for the second quarter 2012 on Wednesday, August 8, 2012, after the close of market.

The Company will host a corresponding conference call to discuss the results with Rob MacLean, CEO, and Anthony Lam, CFO of Points International on Wednesday, August 8, 2012, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. To participate in the conference call, investors from the U.S. and Canada should dial (877) 941-1427 ten minutes prior to the scheduled start time.  International callers should dial (480) 629-9664. 

In addition, the call will be broadcast live over the Internet hosted at the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at www.pointsinternational.com and will be archived online upon completion of the conference call. A telephonic replay of the conference call will also be available until 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday, August 22, 2012 by dialing (877) 870-5176 in the U.S. and Canada and (858) 384-5517 internationally and entering the passcode: 4548122.

HISTORICAL(1 FISCAL YR + Q1 /12) NUMBERS-NO FORECAST: (click to view)

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Utilities, Topping? – UTIL / 10 yr. Yield heading higher? – TNX

We don’t predict market tops, or bottoms; the market will tell us when it is done with a trend.

However, the market will often hint of an impending trend change through divergences.  Divergences are warning signs and they should be heeded and analysed in the context of your market strategy and current positions.

We have been trading utilities long.  We are out of utilities right now and monitoring developments in the 10yr US Treasury Note Yield while we look for potential UTIL shorts incase the divergences play out.

TNX Weekly

TNX vs. UTY – Are UTIL names topping? Is the 10yr Yield heading highe

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Bikini Cole Slaw Wrestling and a Divergent Value Line Index vs. DJIA

The Outer Banks, North Carolina is one of the best places to be during Atlantic hurricane season if you are a surfer.  It is hurricane season now and our friend JTOS in NC just alerted us to a couple local events that are flying under the radar.

The first event is Bikini Cole Slaw Wrestling, and seeing is believing.

The second event is the divergence between the DJIA, and the Value Line Index.

When a persistent divergence of this nature between the DJIA and the Value Line develops, it almost always results in the Dow being dragged down as well.” – Martin Pring, Technical Analysis Explained – Fourth Edition

JTOS, a world class short seller, is warning we may be in the calm before an approaching storm.

VLA vs. DJIA Divergence

 

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

 

 

Daily & Weekly Pivots

Daily & Weekly Pivots for SPY, ES/1, QQQ, NQ/1, AAPL, GLD, SLV, AUDJPY

Download Pivots (.PDF file)

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

10yr US Treasury Notes – A Storm is Brewing

Beachcomber sent us a quick note as he heads for higher ground.  There is a massive storm brewing in 10yr US Treasury Notes.  We will have more to post on this topic over the weekend.

10yr US Treasury Note Future

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

China’s Bear Market Since 8/4/09 Threatens to Turn Super-Secular

At Bikini Analytics we stick to the domestic shorelines of the S&P 500, but Beachcomber is a world traveler.  His latest missive is from a beach near Shanghai which happens to be one of the few places in China where Bikinis are acceptable according to CNN International.

SSEC – Long-term Monthly

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Moment Of Truth for SLV

One of the PMs who follows SLV and posts regularly at Bikini Analytics sent this chart along. If you drill down to the daily chart you will see SLV tried to break-out of its declining top line but failed and the high yesterday was kept in check by its daily and weekly R2 pivot points (click here for 26JUL12 pivots). When daily and weekly Pivots line up, their support or in this case resistance levels are magnified.  There are multiple trade setups depending on how this plays out. Regardless of what side you trade SLV on, tight STOPs are needed until the inflection point is resolved.  This is not a tape that rewards obvious break-outs and the current trend of SLV is down.

Moment of truth for SLV

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Daily & Weekly Pivots

Daily & Weekly Pivots for SPY, ES/1, QQQ, NQ/1, AAPL, GLD, SLV, AUDJPY

Download Pivots (.PDF file)

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

 

Draghi’s Jawboning Just a Prelude to the Sell-off

We need a good night of sleep and we are going out flat after selling all of our longs this morning and covering all of the shorts we were not stopped out on in the last hour today.

That said, Beachcomber is not buying the rally…

Draghi Jawboning Rally

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)

Cbre Group Inc, Too Much Ice Cream – CBG

Our Graphic Artist, an amazing woman who created the Bikini Analytics logos, sent us a bikini called “Too Much Ice Cream.”  The bikini and its title are a perfect metaphor for the problems in Commercial Real Estate.

We are not going to bore you with the macro story (read here) because we prefer pictures, but we do like trades that are stray birds with charts that confirm the story, and the time bomb ticking from “too much ice cream” is a great story.

The pictures below earn CBG a Red rating in the Bikini State.

We will be adding CBG as a short position today after the open.

CBG Daily – Too Much Ice Cream

 

CBG Monthly

 

Disclaimer: This communication should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. (click here for full disclaimer)